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Stonigut's-WC analysis 1930-2006 Results &...
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Topic author: Karl
Subject: Stonigut's-WC analysis 1930-2006 Results &...
Posted on: Mar 20 2006 07:34:05 AM
Message:
Reggaeboyzsc.com's Discussion Forum.Posted by: Stonigut
3/19/2006 11:58:04 PM This post has been read 19 times
WC analysis 1930-2006 Results & potential.
Massive,
After the discussion this morning on organization and discipline, I had to do a little analysis on world cup results, population size and per capita income.
First off I picked only countries that have placed in the top four of WC competition from 1930 through 2002. I added Mex, USA, Japan and Jam for the hell of it. A total of 27 countries.
I pick these three categories to represent the fundamental variables behind the analysis.
Methodology
1. Results - based on number of world cups a country has made, one point for each world cup competition attained, then I went straight to positions 1, 2, 3 and 4 to represent degrees of success beyond making the world cup, thus 1st place = 7points, 2nd = 5 points, 3rd = 3 and 4th = 2 points.
2. Raw Potential - Population size to indicate the country's potential, thus the bigger the population the greater the gross potential. Basically 1 point for each million in population.
3. Organization - Per capita income to indicate a country's organization and discipline and the capacity of the country in this regard, bottom line here is the higher the per capita the greater the degree of effective organization and discipline. Basically again 1 point for each 1000.00 US in per capita income.
Here are the results
Based upon pure cup results
1. Brazil
2. Germany
3. Italy
4. Argentina
5. Uruguay
6. France
7. sweden
8. England
9. Hungary
10. Netherlands
Based upon real combined potential, that is per capita * population size basically GDP. (Raw potential * organization potential).
1. USA
2. Jap
3. Ger
4. Fra
5. Italy
6. Brazil
7. Rus
8. Eng
9. Mex
10. Kor
Next I took the country's cup results divided by the real combined potential score to come up with a % for effectiveness.
1. Uruguay 105% effectiveness, reaching 10 finals, with 2 first places and two fourth places, per capita income of 7.8K US and population size of 3.4 million, Uruguay is really the number 1 football nation in the world based upon these factors.
2. Yugoslavia/Serbia - I combined the results for Serbia and Yugoslavia as effectively Yugo was primarily Serbia before the split, an effectiveness rating of 19.90%, areal falloff between 1st and 2nd. Yugo was fourth in one world cup and with per capita of 2.37USK and population of 10.6 million, probably one of the only Euro countries that Ja has a higher per capita income than.
3. Bulgaria, 18.18% effectiveness, with per capita of 6.6USK and pop of 9.0m, reaching 7 cups with one 4th place finish.
4. Hungary, 14.29% , nine cups two 2nd places.
5. Croatia, 12.65%, three cups, one third place.
6. Sweden, 10.06%, 10 cups, 1 2nd place, 2 3rd places, 1 4th place.
7. Jamaica, 9.52%, 1cup, 3.0 mill pop, per cap of roughly USK3.5.
8. Argentina, 9.37%, 13 cups, 2 wins, 2 2nd's. 38.7 mill and 10.2USK PC.
14. Brazil, 5.06% 17 cups, 5 wins, 2 2nd's, 2 3rd's, 1 4th, 182M pop and USK 7.6.
15. Italy 3.52%
18. Germ 2.92%
20 England, 1.58%
22. Mex, 1.58% 11 cups, no places in top four in any cup, 104mil pop, 9.0 USK per cap.
26. Jap, 0.08%, 127 mill, 28 USK per cap, 3 cups.
27. USA 0.07%, 300 mill pop, 8 finals, 37.6 USK per cap.
Data on cup results, population and per capita taken from FIFA 2006 website.
Bottom line Brazil best results to date, however Uruguay is the most effective football nation in the world based on results, population and income.
Replies:
Reply author: Karl
Replied on: Mar 20 2006 07:37:59 AM
Message:
Reggaeboyzsc.com's Discussion Forum.Posted by: Stonigut
3/19/2006 9:36:44 AM This post has been read 59 times
Organization & Discipline!
Abendblatt: Why are there so many Dutch coaches in the World Cup?
Beenhakker: Because we're good! Seriously, we are proud that there are about 80 Dutch coaches working around the world today. Maybe it has something to do with our philosophy. We always want to play football proactively, to take initiative, and have the match in hand, in combination with organization and discipline. Exemplary was how Guus Hiddink created a first class team out of South Korea in 2002.
Again this is what Jakan ball has been missing at every level, the hard core organization and discipline, the Brazil coaches are really good but there style is not going to deliver what Ja needs, we need the hardcore to obtain the maximum from our talent base, speed, toughness, individual man on man skill, this combined with everyman doing consistently what him supposed to be doing with an emphasis on teaching, tactics, set plays, running on and off the ball, constant movement will take Jakan ball to a whole new level.
the Dutch style of ball would bring another layer, element to our ball that we need, not just at the WC level but from the youth level on up, if we make that investment now by 2022 we will be reaping the value throughout the entire program. Yes it takes a long time, this is not a hire a man 6 months before quals and hope for the best.
Reply author: Karl
Replied on: Mar 20 2006 07:39:16 AM
Message:
Reggaeboyzsc.com's Discussion Forum.Posted by: USAForever
3/19/2006 10:52:59 AM This post has been read 27 times
A STRONG Foundation is needed.
Whether your TD/Head Coach comes from Brazil or Holland (which are two very good choices for Jamaica), it is going to be a uphill battle unless you have laid a strong foundation for him to do the job.
With Simoes, you guys were very lucky to get an individual with passion, and very importantly he was able to galvanize the entire Jamaican community (both in Jamaica and overseas), and pass that on to the people. There is no guarantee you will get someone like that again. You can get an individual who is a far better coach, but to motivate an entire people, even when your chances of qualifying seemed slim to none, that is going to be slim to none. So your national federation, JFF, has to have individuals who can create that buzz and passion - good in marketing and promotion (people who can SELL the Boyz and Girlz); good in accounting, finance and investment (people who can keep the JFF lucrative); good BUSINESS lawyers (who can negotiate fair and lucrative sponsorship deals for the JFF); good managers and administrators (people who can set REAL goals (such as developing local coaches and getting them international exposure and certifications and having a professional local league) and know how to achieve them, and implement systems of checks and balances to help eliminate fraud and corruption.)
----------------
Reggaeboyzsc.com's Discussion Forum.Posted by: Karl [IP: LOGGED ] - 255 active posts. 3/19/2006 1:05:04 PM This post has been read 15 times
RE:A STRONG Foundation is needed.
...and, good national coaches.
Good club, parish, school & other juvenile coaches will come through what you posted above.
Karl
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