Tweet
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=1 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD><SPAN class=TopStory>Portia versus Bruce: Opinion poll surprises</SPAN>
<SPAN class=Subheadline></SPAN></TD></TR><TR><TD>Geof Brown
Friday, September 01, 2006
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=5 width=80 align=left border=0><TBODY><TR><TD>
</TD></TR><TR><TD><SPAN class=Description>Geof Brown</SPAN></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><P class=StoryText align=justify>THE results of the early August Stone opinion poll comparing the strengths of Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller and Leader of the Opposition Bruce Golding present a number of surprises. Perhaps the greatest surprise in the serialised results published in the Daily Observer on Tuesday and Wednesday of this week, was the fact that in the 17 categories of assessment of leadership qualities, Portia led Bruce in every one. Even more surprising was the wide margin of Portia's lead over Bruce in 13 of the categories, running between 22 and 35 percentage points ahead. And in the four categories where the margin of the lead was relatively small, the prime minister was ahead between 4.6 and 7.3 points. This means that even in those four categories where the lead was small, the figures were still within the margin of error of plus or minus three per cent.<P class=StoryText align=justify>The first surprise was perhaps on Sunday when, under the caption "Portia gets thumbs up for performance as PM", the first in the series of the results of the poll appeared. It showed 66.2 per cent of the sample rating the PM's performance so far as between a "fair" to "good/very good job". One was reminded of the observation of respected pollster Don Anderson, cited in this column a few weeks ago, that any approval rating for a political leader in office of over 60 per cent is "phenomenal". The surprise, therefore, is that despite recent slippage in popularity, the PM is still in the phenomenal range; while the Leader of the Opposition, though not losing his popularity standing, has remained a static figure. The accompanying surprise is that only 19.1 per cent of the sample rates the PM as doing a "bad/very bad job" while only 14.7 per cent gave "no response".<P class=StoryText align=justify>Based on the recent heavy barrage of media criticism and especially by leading print and broadcast media heavyweights like Mark Wignall and Mutty Perkins, one would not have expected the stunning figures of the results. It is somewhat of a surprise that despite the strong put-down by these popular critics and despite what the PM termed "beating up on her", the polls show the public at large continuing to hold her in relatively high esteem. Some of us less virulent critics who feel that more time should be given to the fairly new PM to demonstrate her worth or lack of it, are evidently more in tune with the wider public sentiment. In this regard, another surprise is the noticeable omission of former star of public opinion polling, Mark Wignall, from the Stone Poll Team he led for many years. (Mark gave an explanation, however, in his column in yesterday's Daily Observer.)<P class=StoryText align=justify>There are no real surprises in several of the categories where Portia leads. For instance, in the categories "Warmth and charm" (58.6 vs 23.3 per cent), "Compassionate" (56.4 vs 25.5 per cent), "Instil religious values" (56.6 vs 22.2 per cent), no accurate polling should show much otherwise. However, this column finds it rather surprising that in the category "Tolerant" (49.8 vs 27.7 per cent) Bruce is so far outdistanced by Portia. Nevertheless, this could be history catching up, as Bruce himself has told Jamaica of his conversion from unsavoury politics on the ground in his past.<P class=StoryText align=justify>Memories are not always short. A real surprise is the rating of Bruce as a "less efficient ma
<SPAN class=Subheadline></SPAN></TD></TR><TR><TD>Geof Brown
Friday, September 01, 2006
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=5 width=80 align=left border=0><TBODY><TR><TD>
</TD></TR><TR><TD><SPAN class=Description>Geof Brown</SPAN></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><P class=StoryText align=justify>THE results of the early August Stone opinion poll comparing the strengths of Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller and Leader of the Opposition Bruce Golding present a number of surprises. Perhaps the greatest surprise in the serialised results published in the Daily Observer on Tuesday and Wednesday of this week, was the fact that in the 17 categories of assessment of leadership qualities, Portia led Bruce in every one. Even more surprising was the wide margin of Portia's lead over Bruce in 13 of the categories, running between 22 and 35 percentage points ahead. And in the four categories where the margin of the lead was relatively small, the prime minister was ahead between 4.6 and 7.3 points. This means that even in those four categories where the lead was small, the figures were still within the margin of error of plus or minus three per cent.<P class=StoryText align=justify>The first surprise was perhaps on Sunday when, under the caption "Portia gets thumbs up for performance as PM", the first in the series of the results of the poll appeared. It showed 66.2 per cent of the sample rating the PM's performance so far as between a "fair" to "good/very good job". One was reminded of the observation of respected pollster Don Anderson, cited in this column a few weeks ago, that any approval rating for a political leader in office of over 60 per cent is "phenomenal". The surprise, therefore, is that despite recent slippage in popularity, the PM is still in the phenomenal range; while the Leader of the Opposition, though not losing his popularity standing, has remained a static figure. The accompanying surprise is that only 19.1 per cent of the sample rates the PM as doing a "bad/very bad job" while only 14.7 per cent gave "no response".<P class=StoryText align=justify>Based on the recent heavy barrage of media criticism and especially by leading print and broadcast media heavyweights like Mark Wignall and Mutty Perkins, one would not have expected the stunning figures of the results. It is somewhat of a surprise that despite the strong put-down by these popular critics and despite what the PM termed "beating up on her", the polls show the public at large continuing to hold her in relatively high esteem. Some of us less virulent critics who feel that more time should be given to the fairly new PM to demonstrate her worth or lack of it, are evidently more in tune with the wider public sentiment. In this regard, another surprise is the noticeable omission of former star of public opinion polling, Mark Wignall, from the Stone Poll Team he led for many years. (Mark gave an explanation, however, in his column in yesterday's Daily Observer.)<P class=StoryText align=justify>There are no real surprises in several of the categories where Portia leads. For instance, in the categories "Warmth and charm" (58.6 vs 23.3 per cent), "Compassionate" (56.4 vs 25.5 per cent), "Instil religious values" (56.6 vs 22.2 per cent), no accurate polling should show much otherwise. However, this column finds it rather surprising that in the category "Tolerant" (49.8 vs 27.7 per cent) Bruce is so far outdistanced by Portia. Nevertheless, this could be history catching up, as Bruce himself has told Jamaica of his conversion from unsavoury politics on the ground in his past.<P class=StoryText align=justify>Memories are not always short. A real surprise is the rating of Bruce as a "less efficient ma