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Massive cut in PNP lead

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  • #1

    Massive cut in PNP lead

    <TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=1 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD><SPAN class=TopStory>Massive cut in PNP lead</SPAN>
    <SPAN class=Subheadline>Ruling party only 5% ahead of JLP</SPAN></TD></TR><TR><TD>
    Sunday, September 03, 2006
    </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
    <P class=StoryText align=justify>Voter support for the ruling People's National Party (PNP) has plunged dramatically - by 12.3% - in the 10-month period since the November 2005 opinion survey, the latest Stone Polls are showing.<P class=StoryText align=justify>Despite having the more popular leader by far in Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller, the PNP was only ahead of the Bruce Golding-led Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) by 4.7%, which puts the Opposition party within striking distance of an electoral victory, the survey suggests.<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=5 width=410 align=center border=0><TBODY><TR><TD></TD></TR><TR><TD><SPAN class=Description></SPAN></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><P class=StoryText align=justify>The polls were conducted during the first week of August 2006, using a representative sample of 1,496 eligible voters. It has a margin of error of plus or minus three per cent.
    When the margin of error is factored in, the PNP's lead is a statistically insignificant 1.7% among respondents who said they would vote in the next elections.<P class=StoryText align=justify>The party standings appeared to be a reversal in the polls after a week of survey results carried by the Observer, which showed Prime Minister Simpson Miller leading Bruce Golding in all but one area - public speaking - making her more popular than her own party.<P class=StoryText align=justify>But the real story seemed to be the huge plunge by the ruling party when the August 2006 polls are compared with the November 2005 polls. In November, the Stone Polls asked voting-age Jamaicans which party they would vote for in the next elections if Portia Simpson Miller was leading the PNP and Bruce Golding was leading the JLP.<P class=StoryText align=justify>A huge 42.4% said they would vote PNP, compared with 30.8% who said they would put their 'X' beside the JLP's bell.
    In August, voters preferring the PNP dropped to 30.1%, or 12.3% less than in November 2005. However, the JLP's celebration would have been muted somewhat by the fact that it too had slipped - from 30.8% to 25.4% - even if not as sharply as the PNP.<P class=StoryText align=justify>Significantly, the August 2006 Stone Poll also found that of those who gave an opinion on which party was best to run the country, 32.2% said the PNP, against 29.5% who said the JLP, a statistical dead heat.<P class=StoryText align=justify>In its commentary on the most recent polls, the Stone Team said: "Despite criticisms of the Portia Simpson Miller regime, voters still appear to marginally favour a PNP government over a JLP. It was found that 32.2% felt that the PNP was the best party to run the country at the moment, as opposed to 29.5% who supported the JLP. When asked who they intended to vote for in the upcoming elections, 30.1% said the PNP, while 25.4% said the JLP.<P class=StoryText align=justify>"It should be noted that the PNP's advantage over the JLP appears to widen considerably among those classified as 'likely' or 'most likely' voters. 'Likely' voters are those who were enumerated and indicated that they were going to vote. 'Most likely' voters are persons who indicated that they intended to vote in the next elections, were enumerated and had voted in the 2002 general elections."<P class=StoryText align=justify>The Stone Team noted that about 81% of respondents said that they were enumerated, but only 62% said that they intended to vote in the next general elections.<P class=StoryText align=justify>"Interestingly, many of those who did not vote in the 2002 general elections intend to vote in the upcoming elections
    "Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world. Indeed, it is the only thing that ever has."
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  • #2
    RE: Massive cut in PNP lead

    Polls reflect distorted reasoning
    published: Sunday | September 3, 2006     <DIV class=KonaBody>


    Edward Seaga, Contributor

    I have avoided commentaries of a political nature in the past in order to ensure that I do not cast any political shadows. But there are some observations that I should make for greater clarification on at least two matters which are causing a lot of eyebrows to be raised and heads to be scratched.

    A new team is at work in the Stone Polls. Their current survey shows some results that, to many, are very puzzling. The size of margins between responses which favour the Prime Minister over the Leader of the Opposition are unexpectedly large and in some unexpected areas.

    What is being overlooked in understanding these large margins is that the political climate has changed significantly in the last six months. Political opinions are now being dominated by an image factor which is so strong that it is distorting reason. Hence, answers to questions are not necessarily going to be rational. They will reflect a heavy emotional content.

    Sinking the ship

    This has happened before, during the 1970s. In the greater part of that decade voting was mostly an emotional exercise which was so overwhelming that the electorate had substantially become sailors who were cheering while the captain was sinking the ship.

    It took six years of the Michael Manley regime in that period for the electorate to throw off emotions and get hold of their senses.

    The toughest fight in politics is trying to overcome a negative image or fight a positive one. Images are amorphous. They are not susceptible to reason. Generally, the best tactic is to wait until they drift away. But sometimes they don't. They get firmer and stronger until they become a part of legend.

    Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller has been enveloped in an image of devotion to the well-being of the people which has attracted strong emotional attachments to her.

    In such circumstances, don't expect fully rational answers from those who are members of her huge fan club. The answers are going to be mainly emotional. The responses are going to reflect positive responses out of love whether or not the position is, in reality, quite different. This, in colloquial language is like saying, "is just so me like her and me nah say nutting but good 'bout her."

    This is a wonderful position for any politician to be in. It's a win-win situation. But it is very difficult to sustain unless there is a sufficient flow of feel-good and beneficial rewards.

    Gender factor

    Analysis of the make-up of this electoral fan club is not difficult. The present poll has identified the gender factor as one of the main contributors. Women are giving the Prime Minister heavy support not only because they are of the same gender and 'is woman time now', but because women are the burden bearers of the society and any leader with a strong image of looking after the people is going to draw substantial support from women, especially if the image includes a record of past performance. The credibility of expectations of future performance is always strengthened by past performance.

    But there is one area in this poli-tical phenomenon of the magnetic pull of a strong image which has not been incorporated into the polls: It is determination of the extent of the pull across political boundaries.

    This works both ways because where there is strong aversion to the Prime Minister from her own supporters because her image does not fit their image of what her image should be, there will be a rejection factor.

    Two tides

    In such circumstances, there will be two tides running in opposite directions: People's National Party (PNP) suppor
    "Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world. Indeed, it is the only thing that ever has."

    Comment

    • #3
      RE: Massive cut in PNP lead

      What a shame. Dem get what any party would want.. multiple terms to effect a vision..

      What dem duh with it ? Sink the country into massive debt with nothing substainable to show for it.

      The choices people make...

      Comment

      • #4
        RE: Massive cut in PNP lead

        Good read! I find myself warming to the retired Seaga...although if he came out of retirement and ran against Portia, Portia would blow him intoa second retirement...and, ofcourse, yuh dun kno my vote would be for Portia.

        The interesting thing aboutthis quote
        It took six years of the Michael Manley regime in that period for the electorate to throw off emotions and get hold of their senses
        is it could be followed with the question - ...and, how long did it take
        the electorate to throw off emotions and get hold of their senses
        andthrow the JLP out once more?
        "Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world. Indeed, it is the only thing that ever has."

        Comment

        • #5
          RE: Massive cut in PNP lead

          You talking bout tekking people seriously ?

          Dem throw out Seaga fi implementing corrective policies to rescue us from the quagmire Manley put us in.

          PNP fraid fi rationalize the Public Sector.. put the country at risk with underpaid Police and those that protect the borders.

          Yuh is the clown.

          Comment

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