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Can Jamaica hold on to its track and field dominance?
IN THE SHADE…
With Earl Bailey earlbailey@hotmail.com
Sunday, July 14, 2013
Contrary to popular belief, Jamaica is at risk of sliding down track's pecking order.
A decade of success on the track has put Jamaica amongst the elite in of the sport. The little 'Rock' now hob-knobs with high flyers like the Americans, Russia, Kenya, Ethiopia, Germany and England, among others.
(L-R) BOLT... a star still shining. THOMPSON... a future prospect in sprint hurdling
BLAKE... likely the immediate successor to Bolt. FRASER-PRYCE... still has a lot of fuel in her tank
Prior to 2003, Jamaica lived mostly off the scraps from the big table. The emergence of sprint superstar Asafa Powell and the great ladies Veronica Campbell-Brown, Shelly-Ann Fraser-Pryce, topped off by the legendary Usain Bolt, changed the seating arrangement.
Success tumbled down on hungry Jamaican fans like manner from heaven. We have been lapping it up with gusto. If Beijing was the appetiser, London was the main course.
Is the feast coming to a close? Can Jamaica hold on to this position for an extended period? Or is this a golden era which we must savour like a post-Sandy ripe banana?
There is no doubt that talent is being produced every year in the high schools. But regardless of their quality, especially in the lower classes, we won't know if they are fish or foul until they become seniors. Burn out is the X factor.
Let's look at what we have and the possible "immediate" replacements who could keep us at the dinner table, while comparing ammunition with our main rivals -- the Americans (who are working to kick us off).
Women's sprints:
Athens is where it began and luckily or unluckily, the women's sprint relay gold medallists from 2004 are all still around. Luckily, because they are still competing but unluckily, the only new blood is Shelly-Ann who keeps them potent. Apart from her, all the ladies' ages are either off the "almanac" or about to depart. They may have another year together but come 2015 replacements will be necessary. Currently only two are competition ready -- Carrie Russell and to a lesser extent, the injury prone Schillonie Calvert. On current form, expect changes to the team.
Come Rio 2016, Shelly should still be around. No disrespect to the others working hard, but we will have to hope that a few of the current schoolgirls like the powerful pair of Shauna Helps and Jonielle Smith, or perhaps the raw talent of Monique Spencer breaks out. Interestingly, the Americans, our direct competitors, are stacked with talent led by advanced youngsters English Gardner and Kimberlyn Duncan. To further drive home the point, Americans were 1-2 at the WYC last week with no Jamaican in the final.
Men's sprints:
Most of Jamaica's best talent are staying at home with Glen Mills or Stephen Francis. Bolt may still be around in 2016 if something keeps him motivated. If not, there is Yohan Blake, Warren Weir, Nickel Asmeade, Kemar-Bailey-Cole, Julian Forte and a few others, including my pick for stardom, Jevaughn Minzie. This area is well served regardless of what the Yankees throw at us. If Bolt leaves before, however, the fear factor goes with him.
Quartermilers, women's and men's:
Shericka and Novelene Williams have been the standard bearers since 2007. Both seem to be past their best and both will be over 30 in two years. If Stephanie McPherson (25 yrs old) continues to improve, there is hope. One of Shericka Jackson or Chrisann Gordon could be ready in a few years. If not, Jamaica is in deep waters as the Americans and Bahamians are ready to dominate. Francine McCrory , Ashley Spencer, Regina George, (USA), Shanae Miller (Bahamas) are in pole position. A mile relay medal will always be within reach when the intermediate hurdlers are added.
Our 400m men are showing as much growth as Jamaica's economy. Thanks to Javon Francis, Javere Bell there is muted excitement in this event. Until someone begins to run sub-45 consistently, this will continue being a stagnant area for years to come. There are quite a few great looking youngsters in the event but until they leave high school, one will not know if they are burnt out or not. Enough said. On the other hand, the Americans have Bryson Nellum and a few others primed. Kirani James is just 20! A medal in the mile relay is the most we can hope for.
Sprint Hurdles:
Gone are the days when Jamaica could count on two or three finalists in the 100m hurdles. From Michelle Freeman to Deloreen Ennis to Vonette Dixon to World Champion Brigitte Foster-Hylton, Jamaica maintained prominence over many years. That is history. Unless something incredible happens, perhaps with the Williams sisters, (Danielle ran 12.69 a very decent National Champs) the event looks comatose. Maybe Yanique Thompson will add some life in a few years.
The Americans are overstocked with young talent such as Brianna Collins (12.39) and Kori Carter, among others. For the next few years, getting a finalist here could be an overachievement.
The meteoric rise of Hansle Parchment should continue. He could be the undisputed King going into Rio. Andrew Riley is good and even faster, so this event could see a bonus in the next few years. Michael O'Hara and Jaheel Hyde could be as good as or better than these if they focus on this event only! The Americans are always strong in this area.
Intermediate hurdles:
Kaliese Spencer is good enough but not yet tough enough. Of the others, Ristananna Tracey looks the best bet. This has been a most successful event for Jamaica and it would be a shame to see a dramatic fall off. Deon Hemmings and Melaine Walker deserve company.
The Americans have NCAA 1-2 Kori Carter (53.21) and Georganne Moline (53.72) ready to go pro.
This has been another successful event for Jamaica with two silver at the Olympics. Currently, talk of a medal here sounds like an Anancy story. Leeford Green has the tools and could break out. Omar McLeod shows the class to be competitive by 2015 and there are a couple of good juniors.
Apart from current world-class youngsters like Johnny Dutch, the Yanks have a great bunch led by Reggie Wyatt (48.58) and quite a few others under 50 seconds. It won't be easy road for McLeod and company. To get on the podium, they will have to "suck salt through wooden spoon".
Throws:
Like the much touted Kingston Logistics Hub, the throws could be the new frontier for development and expansion. With Travis Smikle, Fredrick Dacres and Chard Wright leading the charge, Jamaica might be able to grab a medal or two in a few years. The girls are improving as well but not at the rate to threaten the world by 2016.
Jumps:
The men's jumps looked bright in 2009 when three youngsters represented fairly well at the Worlds. Currently, nobody is close to world-class apart from Demar Forbes in the LJ. Kimberly Williams and new NCAA champion Shanieka Thomas are ready to battle in the triple.
Events over 400m:
Just getting to the final in any event over 400m is not ridiculous, perhaps ambitious. Natoya Goule and Kemoy Campbell who lived and trained on the May Day Mountains in Manchester as youngsters are our best hope.
Unfortunately, they have their work cut out competing against kids from Mount Kenya and the Amhara region of Ethiopia which make Mandeville look as flat as a fishing village.
Conclusion:
The only "safe area" for Jamaica is the men's sprints. Every other event is under threat. When Bolt goes the fear factor vanishes. There is danger. The Americans are ready to pounce.
Undoubtedly, there is no certainty on the road to stardom. Coaching, injuries, rehabilitation, nutrition, etc, will play a part in what happens after this golden generation retires. Like distance running makes the Ethiopians and Kenyans, sprinting makes Jamaica. I don't see the day when there could be the reverse.
Therefore, with so much speed and only three spots per event, it is time a few of our coaches upgrading themselves in the jumps. The raw talent is readily available, so it wouldn't take much time to produce the goods.
There is also need for quality hurdles coaches at the top. Coach Fitz Coleman is doing a fantastic job, but needs someone to challenge him like Racers challenges MVP. If not, the JAAA should consider inviting a couple of Cuba's best coaches and have them work with our best young talent in both areas. Trinidad's Keshorn Walcott in the Javelin is proof that Cuba is willing to help in the technical events.
Both Mills and Francis should be around for at least the next decade and will have talent to mould, but Jamaica will have to diversify if we are to justify our place at the big table. The Americans ruled the sprints from 1896 to 2007. They have gone through a down phase and are now re-emerging. It is going to get tougher for Jamaica over the next five years.
Based on current form, Jamaica could find it tough to win twelve medals this year. Can Jamaica get six medals in 2018? Think well. What colours?
Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/sport...#ixzz2Z9fQdSMg
IN THE SHADE…
With Earl Bailey earlbailey@hotmail.com
Sunday, July 14, 2013
Contrary to popular belief, Jamaica is at risk of sliding down track's pecking order.
A decade of success on the track has put Jamaica amongst the elite in of the sport. The little 'Rock' now hob-knobs with high flyers like the Americans, Russia, Kenya, Ethiopia, Germany and England, among others.
(L-R) BOLT... a star still shining. THOMPSON... a future prospect in sprint hurdling
BLAKE... likely the immediate successor to Bolt. FRASER-PRYCE... still has a lot of fuel in her tank
Prior to 2003, Jamaica lived mostly off the scraps from the big table. The emergence of sprint superstar Asafa Powell and the great ladies Veronica Campbell-Brown, Shelly-Ann Fraser-Pryce, topped off by the legendary Usain Bolt, changed the seating arrangement.
Success tumbled down on hungry Jamaican fans like manner from heaven. We have been lapping it up with gusto. If Beijing was the appetiser, London was the main course.
Is the feast coming to a close? Can Jamaica hold on to this position for an extended period? Or is this a golden era which we must savour like a post-Sandy ripe banana?
There is no doubt that talent is being produced every year in the high schools. But regardless of their quality, especially in the lower classes, we won't know if they are fish or foul until they become seniors. Burn out is the X factor.
Let's look at what we have and the possible "immediate" replacements who could keep us at the dinner table, while comparing ammunition with our main rivals -- the Americans (who are working to kick us off).
Women's sprints:
Athens is where it began and luckily or unluckily, the women's sprint relay gold medallists from 2004 are all still around. Luckily, because they are still competing but unluckily, the only new blood is Shelly-Ann who keeps them potent. Apart from her, all the ladies' ages are either off the "almanac" or about to depart. They may have another year together but come 2015 replacements will be necessary. Currently only two are competition ready -- Carrie Russell and to a lesser extent, the injury prone Schillonie Calvert. On current form, expect changes to the team.
Come Rio 2016, Shelly should still be around. No disrespect to the others working hard, but we will have to hope that a few of the current schoolgirls like the powerful pair of Shauna Helps and Jonielle Smith, or perhaps the raw talent of Monique Spencer breaks out. Interestingly, the Americans, our direct competitors, are stacked with talent led by advanced youngsters English Gardner and Kimberlyn Duncan. To further drive home the point, Americans were 1-2 at the WYC last week with no Jamaican in the final.
Men's sprints:
Most of Jamaica's best talent are staying at home with Glen Mills or Stephen Francis. Bolt may still be around in 2016 if something keeps him motivated. If not, there is Yohan Blake, Warren Weir, Nickel Asmeade, Kemar-Bailey-Cole, Julian Forte and a few others, including my pick for stardom, Jevaughn Minzie. This area is well served regardless of what the Yankees throw at us. If Bolt leaves before, however, the fear factor goes with him.
Quartermilers, women's and men's:
Shericka and Novelene Williams have been the standard bearers since 2007. Both seem to be past their best and both will be over 30 in two years. If Stephanie McPherson (25 yrs old) continues to improve, there is hope. One of Shericka Jackson or Chrisann Gordon could be ready in a few years. If not, Jamaica is in deep waters as the Americans and Bahamians are ready to dominate. Francine McCrory , Ashley Spencer, Regina George, (USA), Shanae Miller (Bahamas) are in pole position. A mile relay medal will always be within reach when the intermediate hurdlers are added.
Our 400m men are showing as much growth as Jamaica's economy. Thanks to Javon Francis, Javere Bell there is muted excitement in this event. Until someone begins to run sub-45 consistently, this will continue being a stagnant area for years to come. There are quite a few great looking youngsters in the event but until they leave high school, one will not know if they are burnt out or not. Enough said. On the other hand, the Americans have Bryson Nellum and a few others primed. Kirani James is just 20! A medal in the mile relay is the most we can hope for.
Sprint Hurdles:
Gone are the days when Jamaica could count on two or three finalists in the 100m hurdles. From Michelle Freeman to Deloreen Ennis to Vonette Dixon to World Champion Brigitte Foster-Hylton, Jamaica maintained prominence over many years. That is history. Unless something incredible happens, perhaps with the Williams sisters, (Danielle ran 12.69 a very decent National Champs) the event looks comatose. Maybe Yanique Thompson will add some life in a few years.
The Americans are overstocked with young talent such as Brianna Collins (12.39) and Kori Carter, among others. For the next few years, getting a finalist here could be an overachievement.
The meteoric rise of Hansle Parchment should continue. He could be the undisputed King going into Rio. Andrew Riley is good and even faster, so this event could see a bonus in the next few years. Michael O'Hara and Jaheel Hyde could be as good as or better than these if they focus on this event only! The Americans are always strong in this area.
Intermediate hurdles:
Kaliese Spencer is good enough but not yet tough enough. Of the others, Ristananna Tracey looks the best bet. This has been a most successful event for Jamaica and it would be a shame to see a dramatic fall off. Deon Hemmings and Melaine Walker deserve company.
The Americans have NCAA 1-2 Kori Carter (53.21) and Georganne Moline (53.72) ready to go pro.
This has been another successful event for Jamaica with two silver at the Olympics. Currently, talk of a medal here sounds like an Anancy story. Leeford Green has the tools and could break out. Omar McLeod shows the class to be competitive by 2015 and there are a couple of good juniors.
Apart from current world-class youngsters like Johnny Dutch, the Yanks have a great bunch led by Reggie Wyatt (48.58) and quite a few others under 50 seconds. It won't be easy road for McLeod and company. To get on the podium, they will have to "suck salt through wooden spoon".
Throws:
Like the much touted Kingston Logistics Hub, the throws could be the new frontier for development and expansion. With Travis Smikle, Fredrick Dacres and Chard Wright leading the charge, Jamaica might be able to grab a medal or two in a few years. The girls are improving as well but not at the rate to threaten the world by 2016.
Jumps:
The men's jumps looked bright in 2009 when three youngsters represented fairly well at the Worlds. Currently, nobody is close to world-class apart from Demar Forbes in the LJ. Kimberly Williams and new NCAA champion Shanieka Thomas are ready to battle in the triple.
Events over 400m:
Just getting to the final in any event over 400m is not ridiculous, perhaps ambitious. Natoya Goule and Kemoy Campbell who lived and trained on the May Day Mountains in Manchester as youngsters are our best hope.
Unfortunately, they have their work cut out competing against kids from Mount Kenya and the Amhara region of Ethiopia which make Mandeville look as flat as a fishing village.
Conclusion:
The only "safe area" for Jamaica is the men's sprints. Every other event is under threat. When Bolt goes the fear factor vanishes. There is danger. The Americans are ready to pounce.
Undoubtedly, there is no certainty on the road to stardom. Coaching, injuries, rehabilitation, nutrition, etc, will play a part in what happens after this golden generation retires. Like distance running makes the Ethiopians and Kenyans, sprinting makes Jamaica. I don't see the day when there could be the reverse.
Therefore, with so much speed and only three spots per event, it is time a few of our coaches upgrading themselves in the jumps. The raw talent is readily available, so it wouldn't take much time to produce the goods.
There is also need for quality hurdles coaches at the top. Coach Fitz Coleman is doing a fantastic job, but needs someone to challenge him like Racers challenges MVP. If not, the JAAA should consider inviting a couple of Cuba's best coaches and have them work with our best young talent in both areas. Trinidad's Keshorn Walcott in the Javelin is proof that Cuba is willing to help in the technical events.
Both Mills and Francis should be around for at least the next decade and will have talent to mould, but Jamaica will have to diversify if we are to justify our place at the big table. The Americans ruled the sprints from 1896 to 2007. They have gone through a down phase and are now re-emerging. It is going to get tougher for Jamaica over the next five years.
Based on current form, Jamaica could find it tough to win twelve medals this year. Can Jamaica get six medals in 2018? Think well. What colours?
Read more: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/sport...#ixzz2Z9fQdSMg