Historian: Our athletes and the upcoming Worlds?

[Karl]

Suddenly our women squad's medal chances look shaky.
No one of those eligible to compete appear at the very top of her game?

Our men squad looks OK.
Bolt is Bolt!
Carter appears to be in tip-top shape.
Weir appears ready.

...and a 4 x 100M 4 from Bolt, Carter, Weir, Bailey-Cole, Ashmeade and Young or one of the other young turks if they get the baton around look set for another win.

What do you say on our prospects on medal count?

[Historian]

My Moscow Predictions

Karl, I don’t really enjoy guessing/predictions, but here goes:

Jamaica Total Medals: 8 (3 gold, 3 silver and 2 bronze). As you will see when August 10-18 rolls around, Moscow will be no Berlin or even Daegu!

GOLD MEDALS:
100-meter dash (men): Usain Bolt
200-meter dash (men): Usain Bolt
4x100m relay (men): Carter > Bailey-Cole > Ashmeade/Weir > Bolt

SILVER MEDALS:
100-meter dash (women): Shelly-Ann Fraser-Pryce
200-meter dash (women): Shelly-Ann Fraser-Pryce
4x100m relay (women): Brooks > McLaughlin > Stewart > Fraser-Pryce

BRONZE MEDALS:
400-meter race (women): Stephanie McPherson
4x400-m relay (women): Day > Whyte > Williams-Mills > McPherson


OVERVIEW - RELAYS:
4x100m relay (men): Gold > Jamaica; Silver > USA; Bronze > France
4x100m relay (women): Gold > USA; Silver > Jamaica; Bronze > Ukraine

4x400m relay (women): Gold > USA; Silver > Russia; Bronze > Jamaica
4x400m relay (men): Gold > USA; Silver > Bahamas; Bronze > Russia

[Historian]

Still Waiting....

Karl, so you have me waste my time overworking my brain to make predictions, only to find that there is no concomitant response.

[Sir X]

You left out the 200m medals -men

Gold, Silver and Bronze

Bolt, Weir , probably Asmeade...sweeeep!

I expect another medal in the 100m , be it Silver or Bronze for Jamaica.

Cant count Shelly out of the Gold for 100 & 200m , do it at your peril.

No mention of our hurdelist ? we could pick up medals in all of them 400m -men , to 100m - men and women, Gold at that.

[Historian]

Thanks for Replying, Boss

Thanks for responding, X.

No, I did not leave out the 200-meter races for men or women. I agree with you, however, that we can possibly pick up two medals in the men’s 200-meter race. In fact, I would be surprised if we don’t, so this part of the prediction was an oversight on my part.

However, while it is possible, and while your gold-silver-bronze prediction makes sense at this point, I really do not expect a repeat of this 1-2-3 in the men’s 200-meter race. History rarely ever repeats itself like that (lol). I would be extremely happy, though, if I am proven wrong.

I have no reason to expect a gold medal from Shelly-Ann in the 200-meter race (except for maybe sentimental reasons). I would not be surprised if a fit Allyson Felix wins that again. A month ago I would have included Kimberly Duncan in the mix, but now I’m not so sure. Maybe the long NCAA season has finally caught up with her. Kimberly, however, is a superb 200-meter runner and someone who I won’t take lightly.

In my view, Shelly-Ann stands a better chance of winning gold in her pet event, the 100-meter dash. Okagbare and Ahoure are turning in impressive performances, but like Muadib correctly said a week or two ago, neither of these women are 10.70s sprinters. So, if Shelly is fully ready, and gets her usual great start, she has a good chance of making history by winning the gold medal again (as she did in 2008, 2009 and 2012)! Now that would be dominance!

As far as the hurdlers are concerned, I would be VERY surprised if we picked up a medal this time in either the men’s or women’s 100, 110 and 400-meter hurdles. I have already written off our women’s 100-meter hurdlers and our men’s 400-meter hurdles athletes as far as medal chances are concerned. Our best chance was in the men’s 110-meter, but as we all know, Parchment had that unfortunate accident at Stadium East which, I’m quite sure, will affect his performance.

In the 400-meter hurdles I expect that Kaliese Spencer will place in her customary fourth position (she seems so at home there). And as much as I love her, I’m not looking for Ristananna Tracey to make the finals.

You left out the 200m medals -men

Gold, Silver and Bronze

Bolt, Weir , probably Asmeade...sweeeep!

I expect another medal in the 100m , be it Silver or Bronze for Jamaica.

Cant count Shelly out of the Gold for 100 & 200m , do it at your peril.

No mention of our hurdelist ? we could pick up medals in all of them 400m -men , to 100m - men and women, Gold at that.

[Hortical]

Thanks for the predictions. When will our women met expectations in the 4x100 relay? I agree the men's team is still strong enough for a gold in the 4x100. Based on your predictions, no gold medals in your crystal ball for any of our women?

[Karl]

Karl, I don’t really enjoy guessing/predictions, but here goes:

Jamaica Total Medals: 8 (3 gold, 3 silver and 2 bronze). As you will see when August 10-18 rolls around, Moscow will be no Berlin or even Daegu!

GOLD MEDALS:
100-meter dash (men): Usain Bolt
200-meter dash (men): Usain Bolt
4x100m relay (men): Carter > Bailey-Cole > Ashmeade/Weir > Bolt

SILVER MEDALS:
100-meter dash (women): Shelly-Ann Fraser-Pryce
200-meter dash (women): Shelly-Ann Fraser-Pryce
4x100m relay (women): Brooks > McLaughlin > Stewart > Fraser-Pryce

BRONZE MEDALS:
400-meter race (women): Stephanie McPherson
4x400-m relay (women): Day > Whyte > Williams-Mills > McPherson


OVERVIEW - RELAYS:
4x100m relay (men): Gold > Jamaica; Silver > USA; Bronze > France
4x100m relay (women): Gold > USA; Silver > Jamaica; Bronze > Ukraine

4x400m relay (women): Gold > USA; Silver > Russia; Bronze > Jamaica
4x400m relay (men): Gold > USA; Silver > Bahamas; Bronze > Russia

Happy you stuck your head out!
Appears reasonable to me.
We shall see how well you do.

Aside: Shelly-Ann to surprise and win the 100M! Her first World Cup Gold?

[Karl]

Karl, so you have me waste my time overworking my brain to make predictions, only to find that there is no concomitant response.

Sorry, boss! Please forgive.
Please see my response to your earlier elsewhere in the thread.
Good predictions, boss.

Thanks!

[Historian]

No More Than One Gold

Thanks for the predictions. When will our women met expectations in the 4x100 relay? I agree the men's team is still strong enough for a gold in the 4x100. Based on your predictions, no gold medals in your crystal ball for any of our women?

Hortical, boss, over the decades that I’ve closely followed track and field, I have paid greater attention and had greater attachment to Jamaica’s female athletes (when compared with the men). In the pre-Asafa Powell, Usain Bolt years (specifically the mid-1980s to 2005 or thereabouts), our women were the ones who consistently filled us with pride (in addition to our 4x400-meter men).

To say I love and admire and cherish our women is probably stating it mildly.

However, in all fairness (and remember that this is simply one man’s opinion) the only possible gold medal for women that I can see coming our way this year is Shelly-Ann Fraser-Pryce in the 100-meter dash.

Now to your relay question: Our women have won the 4x100-meter relay on two occasions at the IAAF World Championships (1991 and 2009) and once at the Olympic Games (2004). As I pointed out elsewhere several days ago, the USA did not cross the finish line in any of these three races. The USA women were not in the finals in 1991 and 2009, and in 2004 messed up their second baton change and so stopped running.

Now get this: In all three years, the USA had the faster team of both countries. For example, in 2004 when we won, the USA had run impressive world leading times in two races mere weeks before the start of the Olympics, turning in times that were faster than the 41.73 seconds winning time for Jamaica in the finals in Athens.

The USA team in 2013, with or without Carmelita Jeter, will be a formidable aggregation, and will quite likely include the likes of English Gardener, Allyson Felix, Kimberly Duncan, Jeneba Tarmoh, and other sprinters and hurdlers.

Even if the unlikely happens and Veronica Campbell-Brown makes our team, we will still be without the services of the very important Sherone Simpson. So, if Jamaica and the USA each have accurate baton passes, the most I can look for is a silver for Jamaica.

[Historian]

No, Her Second Gold

Happy you stuck your head out!
Appears reasonable to me.
We shall see how well you do.

Aside: Shelly-Ann to surprise and win the 100M! Her first World Cup Gold?

Slight correction needed here, Karl. If Shelly-Ann wins, it will NOT be her first IAAF World Championships 100-meter gold medal. Remember, she won in 2009 (Berlin), with Kerron Stewart second and Carmelita Jeter third.

[Karl]

Slight correction needed here, Karl. If Shelly-Ann wins, it will NOT be her first IAAF World Championships 100-meter gold medal. Remember, she won in 2009 (Berlin), with Kerron Stewart second and Carmelita Jeter third.

Thanks for reminding me, boss. It was criminal of me to overlook.
http://berlin.iaaf.org/news/kind=114/newsid=53233.html

Video: - http://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=...ail&FORM=VIRE6

[Karl]

The USA team in 2013, with or without Carmelita Jeter, will be a formidable aggregation, and will quite likely include the likes of English Gardener, Allyson Felix, Kimberly Duncan, Jeneba Tarmoh, and other sprinters and hurdlers.

Historian: Most impressive of the USA women at the 2012 Olympics was their starter, Tianna Madison, who gave our "pocket Rocket" fits!

Video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature...&v=sAfhf_u_QBI

[Karl]

Relay hint from the maestro

Published: Thursday | August 1, 2013



Hubert Lawrence



Glen Mills



Racers Track Club's Usain Bolt (right) running the final leg in the men's 4x100 metres during the Diamond League athletics meet at the Olympic Stadium in London on Sunday. Racers won the event in 37.75 seconds. France (left) were second in 38.45. - AP

Sometimes, hints are subtle and require a little thinking to decipher. Other hints are direct and are one step away from being a clear instruction.

Last Saturday, at the London Diamond League meet, there was a hint about what Jamaica's men's 4x100 relay team could look like at the World Championships in Moscow.

To sweeten the deal, this hint comes directly from relay maestro Glen Mills.
In London, Mills' Racers Track Club - Mario Forsythe, Kemar Bailey-Cole, Warren Weir and the incomparable Usain Bolt - ran the sprint relay in 37.75 seconds.

Many countries use races like that one to test-drive their sprint relay combinations before big championships.

Already, the USA have run fast in warm-up races, with their men and women logging times of 37.58 and 41.75 seconds, respectively. Jamaica take another approach and do all their relay preparation at pre-championship camps and at convenient breaks at the championships themselves.

Practice races would help any team, but the Jamaican approach has worked in recent years. Since a loss to the US in the 2007 World Championships, Jamaica won two Olympic gold medals and two World Championships gold medals, with three world records to boot.

This year is different. The stable unit that did all that damage has broken up. Michael Frater, who marshals the second leg, is out with injury, and Yohan Blake, third leg in 2011 and 2012, has the same problem. Asafa Powell, de facto anchorman from 2002 to 2009, is famously unavailable too.

Last Saturday's hint was clear. Nesta (Carter) started the world record teams from 2008, 2011 and 2012 and could well be deployed to run the first leg in Moscow. That would give the coaching staff just one new exchange to build from scratch at camp and at the Championships. That's important, because Bolt and Nickel Ashmeade are running both the 100m and 200m there, and will probably be afforded some rest when the 100m is finished. That makes it well nigh impossible to do hours of full- speed baton-passing practice on location once the action begins.

Heats selection
Moreover, the heats and finals fall within hours of each other on the last day of the meet. Even if head coach Michael Clarke decides on the Carter-Bailey-Cole, Weir-Bolt unit for the final, picking the team for the heats won't be easy.

Carter and Bailey-Cole will have had about a week of rest after the 100m, but there could be four Jamaicans in the 200m final, which ends the day before the relay. They are the doublers Bolt and Ashmeade, Weir and newcomer Jason Livermore.

Weir runs only the 200m and might have to run the heats. The same might apply to Livermore, who was fifth in the National 100m. His Akan Track Club teammate, 2010 national champion Oshane Bailey, was sixth.

So the team in the heats might have debutant Livermore or Bailey, or hurdler Dwight Thomas, a gold-medal relay veteran.

These are important considerations. At the 2009 World Championships, Veronica Campbell-Brown ran the 100/200m double and was rested from the 4x100m heats. With the final up less than two hours later and pre-race at a premium, the Jamaica quartet that won in the heats won the final ... without VCB. The resulting reshuffle left a sour taste.

Outcome
We won't know until August 18 if the Mills sprint relay hint will be taken. It's good advice on a complex choice from a man who has been there and done that. Even if the suggestion for the team for the final is accepted, the Moscow racing schedules of our sprinters affects who will run in the heats.

Armchair strategists can natter away from the safety of their keyboards, but coach Clarke will have to make shrewd decisions. Though he is head coach at this level for the first time, he has a wealth of experience and is a long-serving member of Jamaica's staff at major championships.

With him is technical leader Maurice Wilson, who was head coach after Mills stepped away from national duties in 2009. With Clarke and Wilson on duty in Moscow, this critical choice is in safe hands.

Hubert Lawrence has made notes at trackside since 1980.

http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/2...s/sports4.html