Kingston At End Of Haiti Earthquake Fault Line

[Bruce]

From WISC TV, Madison, Wisconsin

VIDEO: Geologists Paying Attention To Haiti Earthquake

Geologists Paying Attention To Haiti Earthquake

UW Scientist Not Surprised By Quake's Magnitude

Updated: 8:25 am CST January 16, 2010

MADISON, Wis. -- While the science behind the earthquake in Haiti is taking a backseat to humanitarian efforts, some geologists are still paying attention, including one at the University of Wisconsin-Madison who has been researching the area for years.

Professor Chuck DeMets didn't predict when an earthquake would hit Haiti, but he knew how strong it could be. "We know faults will eventually rupture, so we know we will be proven right," said DeMets, a UW-Madison Professor of Tectonics.

DeMets has been studying a fault line that runs from eastern Jamaica through Haiti called the Enrinqullo-Plaintain Garden fault. In 2007, he estimated that since an earthquake hadn't hit the Jamaican end in more than 100 years, when it did it could hit a magnitude of 7.2.

In fact, the Haiti earthquake measured a 7 on the Richter scale.
"Although we didn't make any predictions or forecasts for Haiti, at least the scientists familiar with the area know that the two islands and what happens on them are closely related," said DeMets.

He said the islands are so closely related that Jamaicans have reason to be worried.
"It could be a hundred years from now and it could be tomorrow, but what is clear is when one fault ruptures and it is connected to another fault, that the rupture of one fault loads the other fault," said DeMets.

Just like a crack in a windshield, he said the pressure could move down the fault, so he'll watch and wait.

"I've asked my Jamaican colleague to go make some measurements at the point in Jamaica closest to Haiti to see if we could detect anything that would be useful for the geophysical response to the earthquake," said DeMets.

DeMets said that this happens to be "earthquake awareness week" in the country of Jamaica and he said the scientists and community there are keenly aware of what might happen.

[Karl]

Do not think we would have that type problem...

...and I think we had a pretty big quake in the late 80s (or was it in...1990?)?

..so that 100 years(?)

[Hortical]

The last massive earthquake to hit Jamaican was in 1907 where 1,000 perished and it caused £2,000,000 in damage. According to the Housing Minister, 25% of Jamaicans live in substandard housing and depending where the earthquake hits, there could be significant loss of life & damage.

[Mosiah]

I would think that since the Haiti quake released the pressure along that fault line, it would take some time for that pressure to build up again along that fault.

What do I know!

I was wondering, what's the significance of the second half of the name - Plaintain Garden? That's the name of a river in St. Thomas, which happens to be the only river in the island to run eastward. I guess the river itself runs along that fault line?!?

[Za]

Do not think we would have that type problem...

...and I think we had a pretty big quake in the late 80s (or was it in...1990?)?

..so that 100 years(?)

I'm just curious why you think we wouldn't have that type of problem?
I think the last big earthquake to hit Jamaica was in 1907. The earthquake in
1993 was moderate was about 5.3 in magnitude. A big earthquake over 7.0
did cripple and sink parts of Port Royal along with the tsunami it caused.

[Za]

I would think that since the Haiti quake released the pressure along that fault line, it would take some time for that pressure to build up again along that fault.

What do I know!

I was wondering, what's the significance of the second half of the name - Plaintain Garden? That's the name of a river in St. Thomas, which happens to be the only river in the island to run eastward. I guess the river itself runs along that fault line?!?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enriqui...den_fault_zone

[Willi]

The substandard houses may not kill a lot though, as they will not be substantial.

The 1907 e-quake killed most of those people in FIRES!

Kingston as we know is really very new.

[Willi]

The NKgn tall buildings and even the waterfront ones should be built on higher standards that what may obtain in Haiti. I was in 17 Dom Dr for the 5point Equake and it felt like a Lorry rammed the building and you could feel the shock absorbers bouncing and absorbing the stress. Felt horrible but worked well.

I hope the Kgn Waterfront buildings like BNS, BOJ, Conf Centre, Ocean Towers and the Justice Ministry bldgs are of the same high standard. I also hope the soil downtown is firm.

[Mosiah]

thanks, za, but is this answering my questions?

[Islandman]

Yeah I was in New Kingston for that one too, on the second or third floor. Felt like the floor was going to give way any minute but they say that was the absorbers.

Still a 5 point to a 7 point quake is like a heavy shower to a Cat 5 hurricane, so who knows.

[Hortical]

The 7.0 earthquake in Port-of-Prince was equivalent to 32,000,000 tons of TNT and most of the buildings in Kingston would have been damaged or destroyed. 5.0 is equivalent to 150,000 tons of TNT and 6.0 = 1,000,000 tons. The seismic power as you go up the richter scale is not linear.

[Mosiah]

most of what kinds of buildings?

[Willi]

Yeah the scale is not linear. 7.0 is about 15 times more powerful than a 5.5.


However, all that is in the design. The damage would be heavy, but not total like many buildings in Haiti, that is my point.

Dont forget about the impressive 7 story shell of a Building in NK near Island Life, just behind the Hilton Hotel. They violated the permit and that huge structure was eventually demolished before completion. We DO have standards, even if we are not as thorough as maybe we should be.

[Hortical]

Buildings that do not incorporate specific seismic codes in their design are likely to be damaged/destroyed with a 7.0 earthquake. I have heard from some construction experts who have worked in Haiti that even a 2.0 earthquake would have caused severe death due to non-existent building codes, much less seismic codes.

For some reason their is a perception that Jamaica is less vulnerable than Haiti, and can withstand an earthquake of similar magnitude. If new buildings are not built with seismic codes in their design elements, and older buildings are not reinforced, there would be extensive damage. Jamaica uses a lot of precast concrete for housing construction, and those tend to be vulnerable.

[Karl]

The 7.0 earthquake in Port-of-Prince was equivalent to 32,000,000 tons of TNT and most of the buildings in Kingston would have been damaged or destroyed. 5.0 is equivalent to 150,000 tons of TNT and 6.0 = 1,000,000 tons. The seismic power as you go up the richter scale is not linear.

What was the measurement - strength and length - of the earthquake which I experienced and of which I spoke above?

I do not remember what was reported on it. I know it was strong, loud and seemed at the time to be going on forever!