Questioning Boyne On Bruce's Bounce

[Assasin]

So wait. Did you realise crusises have been around for how many years?

Is cruise in direct competition with Jamaican tourist?

When I went to school in Port Antonio and there was the cruise industry we all benefited from it. Taxi man nice, resturant nice etc. so stop condemn everything and work with the program.

[Don1]

This guy is 1000% on point!!!!!!!!

Exposes the superficial "analysis" of the naive and the tribal

Well except for the incorrect statement that this crisis is the worst since the 1970s...the bank meltdown of the 1990s was far worse...in fact in percentage terms of GDP that was one of the worst of any country in in the world in recent history.

[Don1]

What if the Falmouth Wharf thing really work? What if they can pull off Port Royal, now tell me how will the All Inclusive benefit.

Of course the All Inclusives will be the primary beneficiaries...the floating AIs called Cruise Ships


put on yuh tinking cap

[Karl]

...as it has been pointed out from time to time

our island is extremely small and as I have been advocating as a Robert Lightbourne convert - The screw driver industry policy - it is stupid...asinine...to embrace any all or nothing policy on what we produce. We have to produce in as many different ways that we can - mining, tourism, etc...value added goods, import substitution, local produced goods and services...agriculture, education, etc...'stuff' like providing health services for locals and persons from outside of Jamaica, the call centers, tech support services...infrastructural services - excellent telecommunication systems, roads, adequate and efficient power supplies, government services that promote good business climate/ease of doing business, etc., etc.

It is short sighted to think those good policies which the current JLP presents should be pursued and those good policies of the last PNP government and governments before be ignored...or in real terms what I am hearing - only these JLP policies are excellent and there was only failures during the PNP's past 18 years - PURE UNADULTERATED STUPID, LYING, NONSENSE STATEMENTS!

...and it is attitudes embodied in those nonsense statements that have had us not moving as rapidly forward as we should.

[Don1]

[Assasin;247798]This man should do a better analyst?

Isn't it a good thing that we importing less? The mindset of some people is everything from foriegn is good. How will we pay for it and continue to live behind our means?

Your argument is shallow.

Jamaica operates what's called an open economy...one dependent on trading. It is not in the interest of such an economy to merely reduce imports per se...this may cause a disastrous reduction in economic activity.

What's important for such an economy is the relationship between exports and imports...or put another way the efficiency in which we translate needed foreign inputs into export income....or put yet another way..a big productivity increase is vital

So it's fine for imports to rise....as long as exports are rising faster...is this happening?..NO

Econ models based on import substitution cannot work well on a broad scale in a liberalized trade environment...so your tomato argument is interesting and seductive..but unviable except in limited cases where there is a competitive advantage for local production

Did he realise that tourist is coming in record numbers?

So what ..... even if this is the case?? That record number of arrivals has been so for maybe the past 8 years given the hotel/airport expansion...now accompanied by record discounting to get the business

No fundamental change here

Can he state the advantages of borrowing at lower interest rate?

True dat... but that has to be balanced against an enormous 55% increase in debt stock in less than 3 years.... mostly in FX. Maybe an inevitable development given the downturn...but no cause for joy

Can he state the advantages of a stable dollar.

Tru dat...JDX ah di bomb...plus with that tremendous borrowing the exchange rate had to stabilize.

The stable dollar was purchased with US5-6B in borrowing...not production or productivity increases...so the structural dysfunction is still not fixed...but a breathing space was purchased at tremendous cost.

All the international accrediting organizations currently saying Jamaica is moving in the right direction.

Agree...finally emerging from recession which is good...but still far lagging our peers in this recovery....I guess it's the residual termites?

There are many positives for Jamaica in the short term if the government can do a few more changes that are needed to give small businesses a chance to grow.

Far more reform than a "few more changes" is required.

Jamaica is on a track to increase income inequality even if some "growth" is achieved. This will leave big sectors still mired in poverty and poor education and a lack of social mobility.

Growth and real development are much different constructs...we will see that when the income of the elite and upper income sectors increases at a multiple above the middle class and poor.... that's growth Republican Party/JLP style.

A possible game changer MAY be the supposed massive Chiney investment..


Your analysis needs a little more insight.

[Don1]

This guy is 1000% on point!!!!!!!!

Exposes the superficial "analysis" of the naive and the tribal

[Assasin]

A under which regime the most all inclusives were built in Jamaica?

Man there is still a slice of the cake for the Jamaicans if them smart.

That is a totally different argument anyway, did the writer make that case in his article?

What if the Falmouth Wharf thing really work? What if they can pull off Port Royal, now tell me how will the All Inclusive benefit.

[Jawge]

Tourists coming in record numbers and satying where? Which city is benefitting from this great inflow of tourists? Ja is just a clearing house when it comes on to tourism. Ja is right back in the 60s when the numbers on the books were great but the people were mired in poverty and suffering.

One thing I can give Eddie credit for: On his watch; JTB begged private homes in Mobay to put up tourists (now that is tourism). You want mi run di link fi show yuh real tourism again?

[Assasin]

This man should do a better analyst?

Isn't it a good thing that we importing less? The mindset of some people is everything from foriegn is good. How will we pay for it and continue to live behind our means?

Maybe instead of importing stale tomatoes and onions we can actually plant and be able to sell.

Did he realise that tourist is coming in record numbers?

Can he state the advantages of borrowing at lower interest rate?

Can he state the advantages of a stable dollar.

All the international accrediting organizations currently saying Jamaica is moving in the right direction.

There are many positives for Jamaica in the short term if the government can do a few more changes that are needed to give small businesses a chance to grow.

[Muadib]

The last question is all that is required to file this in the garbage dump.

This Lloyd Miller is a real clown.

[Mosiah]

Questioning Boyne On Bruce's Bounce
Published: Thursday | July 22, 20101 Comment and 0 Reactions

Golding
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The Editor, Sir:

I read with interest Ian Boyne's article titled 'Can Bruce bounce back?' in The Sunday Gleaner of July 10. Below are my comments:

1. He stated, inter alia, that Jamaicans had forgotten that the Jamaican dollar could fluctuate either way and concluded that the people welcomed the lower prices. What lower prices is he talking about; and at what level in the supply chain? He needs to give empirical data to support his conclusions. On the question of the appreciation of the dollar, he ought to know that this has resulted from the massive decrease in the value of imports of merchandise, raw materials and, importantly, capital goods and finished products vital for the viability and sustainability of the economy.

Simply put, it is a reflection of the demand/supply equation for foreign exchange. So, along with the harm likely to be done to tourism, our most successful sector, what is the positive, when the lower prices are not being passed on?

2. On the issue of diplomatic relations with Trinidad and Tobago, I believe that these relations will continue to redound to the benefit of the twin-island republic with few exceptions. So the Trinis would want to preserve the status quo given the massive balance of trade in their favour etc. Beneficial relations between countries must be based on equality, fairness and balance, not on PR gimmicks from the Trinidadians.

3. a. In terms of the economy, I agree that there has been some positive elements, but this economy is in its deepest crisis since the 1970s, having been in rapid decline with 10 quarters of no or declining growth; unemployment at its zenith, poverty rising and more and more households starving.

b. The national debt is rising at a breakneck pace never seen in Jamaica's history, with over 50 per cent added to the debt in less than three years.

c. The money being borrowed is not being used mainly for developmental purposes (capital, social or infrastructural). So what is the economic base that future generations are going to use to repay these loans?

d. Productivity is declining rapidly (We are at late 1950s level) and not enough is being done to develop an educated technologically-competent labour force.

e. The climate is not being fostered for economic equality, empowerment and participation by the masses; instead what we are seeing is a clean sweep by the traditional ethnic minorities, who, now, not only control private-sector boardrooms but the most powerful public-sector boards from which base they wheel and deal by offering lucrative contracts to their companies.

4. On the issue of the crime rate, what would Mr Boyne expect to happen in a state of emergency, a decline or an increase? The question that should occupy most Jamaican minds is what will happen when the state of emergency ends, bearing in mind the runaway crime rate before it was implemented, and that most of the guns are still out there. But in terms of statistics, what is he comparing here, a May-June period of 2009 under normal conditions and the same period under a state of emergency? It doesn't seem we are comparing like with like.

Finally, I disagree with Mr Boyne that the next election will largely be determined by the moral failures of Mr Golding, repugnant as these are, but instead by the economic realities on the ground. The inevitable question will have to be asked of the people: Are you better off today under the present administration than under the previous regime?

I am, etc.,

LLOYD MILLER

alexmiller_037b@yahoo.com