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The Meta-Margin is defined as how far the Clinton-Trump margins in state polls would have to change, across the board, to create a perfect knife-edge race in which the median outcome is an electoral tie 269 EV to 269 EV. Today the Meta-Margin is Clinton +4.24%. This is nearly identical to today’s HuffPollster national-poll estimate, Clinton +4.3%. So state and national polls are perfectly matched at the moment.
Obviously, enough states are safely Democratic or Republican that the number of possible outcomes is far less than 2.3 quadrillion. Only about 14 states are in play, for 16,384 possibilities. I use polls for all 50 states and the District of Columbia where available. In races lacking state polls, usually in places where the outcome is not much in doubt, I use the result from the 2012 Obama-Romney race as a starting assumption. There has been a lot of talk this year about how all bets are off. However, as I showed a few weeks ago, Donald Trump has not scrambled the electoral map in any meaningful way. The sole exception so far is Utah, where Trump is running over 30 percentage points weaker against Clinton than Barack Obama did against Mitt Romney. However, Utah is so strongly Republican that this is probably not going to change the November outcome.
http://election.princeton.edu/2016/0...-2/#more-15796
I am surprised its so close,seriously ! I am looking for 350 and up for Clinton,The Thing is Clinton hasnt even started to train her guns on Trump.Trump has been running his mouth for a month against Clinton and to be honest his attacks are predictable( Lying Hillary) and as they get more visceral against any and everybody that doesnt see things his way (The Judge,Reporters & Governor) esp in the polls and the reality of them.He will become more visceral loosing more independents and driving people to vote out of fear that this nut could be the next president.
Hillary will be free of Bernie in a week,they will kiss and makeup,and then the real war begins.
Obviously, enough states are safely Democratic or Republican that the number of possible outcomes is far less than 2.3 quadrillion. Only about 14 states are in play, for 16,384 possibilities. I use polls for all 50 states and the District of Columbia where available. In races lacking state polls, usually in places where the outcome is not much in doubt, I use the result from the 2012 Obama-Romney race as a starting assumption. There has been a lot of talk this year about how all bets are off. However, as I showed a few weeks ago, Donald Trump has not scrambled the electoral map in any meaningful way. The sole exception so far is Utah, where Trump is running over 30 percentage points weaker against Clinton than Barack Obama did against Mitt Romney. However, Utah is so strongly Republican that this is probably not going to change the November outcome.
http://election.princeton.edu/2016/0...-2/#more-15796
I am surprised its so close,seriously ! I am looking for 350 and up for Clinton,The Thing is Clinton hasnt even started to train her guns on Trump.Trump has been running his mouth for a month against Clinton and to be honest his attacks are predictable( Lying Hillary) and as they get more visceral against any and everybody that doesnt see things his way (The Judge,Reporters & Governor) esp in the polls and the reality of them.He will become more visceral loosing more independents and driving people to vote out of fear that this nut could be the next president.
Hillary will be free of Bernie in a week,they will kiss and makeup,and then the real war begins.
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