Bruce given another lesson!

[Muadib]

Willi can you help me with my question.. not getting a response from the Econ brains Baddaz and Mosiah.. dem laughing mi to scorn but not providing any information.

[Willi]

You can disclose AFTER the fact. The financial year is 3/4 over now.

Again, the real issue is the MASSIVE $15b unbudgetted shortfall.

Keep your eye on the prize.

[Lazie]

I cannot think of one...but, another side - Did Bruce deliberately let that info slip for an undetermined reason?

Slip? Do you people think?

If there is an item budgeted for $1 million at 71 in April, what would be the effect of that item at today's exchange rate? If you, Baddaz and Mosiah had read the article in its entirety you all would see that the PM was requesting that 3 billion be transferred from the CDF for budgetary support.

1 million @ 71 =?
1 million @ yesterday's rate is what? The fiscal year ends in MArch suh unuh need to think for a change instead of holding a comrade position.

[Willi]

so the $15b shortfall is not underproviding?

The man has a problem with materiality!

[Muadib]

The Dollar is now over $71.

How does knowing what exchange rate Omar was basing projections on in March impact the Market ?

[Karl]

Dollar dilemma - Golding reveals 2007/08 Budget exchange rate, chided by Davies
published: Wednesday | November 21, 2007


Edmond Campbell, News Coordinator

Prime Minister Bruce Golding making his contribution to a debate in Parliament yesterday. - Rudolph Brown/Chief Photographer


Prime Minister Bruce Golding revealed in Parliament yesterday that the former Portia Simpson Miller administration had calculated the 2007/2008 Budget on an exchange rate of J$71 to US$1.

But former Minister of Finance, Dr. Omar Davies, said he was surprised that the Prime Minister had disclosed that information, noting that it had always been the policy of the previous administration and the relevant officials not to discuss that "for obvious reasons".

Mr. Golding, commenting on the $16 billion expenditure that was not included in the Budget, said: "We understand that when you cast a budget that there may be changes, there may be price movements and you have to make adjustments, but we are talking about items that were left out.

"A lot has been said about price movements, a lot has been said about exchange-rate movements. I am (here) to tell this House that the current Budget, which is being pursued to March next year, was calculated on the basis of a US$71/J$1," he disclosed.

Mr. Golding was debating a resolution to transfer nearly $3 billion from the Capital Development Fund to be used for budgetary support.

Cautioned
But speaking with journalists after the sitting of the House, Dr. Davies said he was cautioned by his technicians not to release information on the rate of exchange or interest rate that they had projected.

"I am quite surprised that he (Golding) did and I do not believe that he was properly advised. His financial advisors would not have suggested that that be done," Dr. Davies contended.

He argued that if at the start of a financial year, the Government indicated the exchange rate or the interest rate on which the Budget was cast, this would have negative implications for speculation.

Commenting on the former administration's decision to calculate the budget at J$71 to US$1, Dr. Davies said if a government projected an exchange rate that was too low, "then you would under provide, so you make an assumption and then you manage the economy during the year".
"You would have noted in my 14 years I would never indicate several times the question was asked what is the exchange rate on which you have built the budget and I would not respond," said Davies.

At the start of the current fiscal year in April, the Jamaican dollar traded at $67.81 to US$1. This means that the Jamaican dollar, which now trades at $71.33 to US$1 has slid by 5.19 per cent since April.
edmond.campbell@gleanerjm.com

I cannot think of a reason...but, another side - Did Bruce deliberately let that info slip? Anyone can post a reason for his doing so?

[Karl]

I must admit the impact is not immediately apparent to me.

The dollar is currently over $71.

What is the impact of stating what the budget WAS predicated on at this time ?

OK!
Questions: - two simple uncomplicated questions:
How large do you think is the size of the informal trading sector that buys outside of the island and sells to the local market?

What do you think persons and or entities (Yup companies and businesses) that use/dabble in that market - Even you know that...and, can come up with many reasons, inclusive of dodging paying of taxes, why that happens? - will now do as it pertains to costing and purchasing of foreign exchange?

Hint! - Do you think? - Revise costing and hoard foreign exchange may be a possibility? Increase prices to hedge against where the dollar may actually go?

What do you think those in the formal market will now do? Go revisit budgets...and, forecast of foreign exchange requirements? Increase prices/revise costing to hedge against cost of foreign exchange needed to purchase/replace goods taken off the shelves?

Just two hints in a long list!

[Muadib]

Waiting for enlightenment.

The Dollar is over $71. This is November

How does knowing that Minister of Finance predicated his budget on $71 in March disrupt the financial markets ?

[Lazie]

How does declaring that the budget WAS predicated on 71 dollars currently impact industry, local, international, investors, creditors etc at this time.. we are in November and the dollar is now OVER $71.

Please tell me what I am missing.. mi kinda dark in the econ area...

Yuh nuh understand, they only have their views based on the utterances from the PNP top brass. If Omar didn't say anything, this would be a dead thread. Same way ... its after Portia and the others start expressing their disgust with Bruce's comment ... they all see the need to be upset.

I tell yuh dem program.

[Baddaz]

[Muadib]

How does declaring that the budget WAS predicated on 71 dollars currently impact industry, local, international, investors, creditors etc at this time.. we are in November and the dollar is now OVER $71.

Please tell me what I am missing.. mi kinda dark in the econ area...

[Lazie]

i suppose you are not familar with statistical analysis, projection, forecasting, global trends, in the development of budgets...

leave it alone and stop display your ignorance...

... well I've done some of them before ... don't come here giving us the impression that either you or mosiah did any of the above to come the unuh Omar defense. Get real Baddaz. Anyone displaying ignorance is you. Unuh jumping to conclusion based on the fact it was Omar that said it.

[Baddaz]

yuh si how limited dem is fi comprehend de complex... dem nuh si de impact such disclosure has on strategic interests of the country... the financial services industry local and international, investors, creditors... waste a time...

[Lazie]

suh if yuh nuh know... why de franz yuh just leff it alone instead of coming back wid some unintelligible drivel...

duh some research, ask some questions, be resourceful... then come back an mek an intelligent contribution... duh...

... Have you been reading all the posts? Obviously not. Unless you have a crystal ball unuh can tell me that Omar is right. The fact is there are arguments that can be made for both sides. The only way to be certain that he is right or wrong is to see the actual effects.

Again, Lazie looks at both side of the issue. You and Mosiah holding a comrade position. Using words like intelligent, research, resourceful nuh faze mi ... I don't have a termite infested brain.

[Mosiah]

And yet dem a call people dark and intellectually depraved.