Where will Messrs Golding and Shaw find the money?

[Lazie]

Obviously, it is my opinion. I can't prove that he won it. But Shaw seemed short on facts and only scored points because Omar dem dideh fi 18 years. But Shaw does not give me confidence as a finance minister.

Well, i can prove Bruce beat Portia. Did Seaga give you confidence as a finance minister?

[Willi]

Same place Omar gonna find the money for the PNP's expensive manifesto.
That manifesto is very ambitious too...unless they do not intend to honour it like the myriad of others they have proposed in the last 20 years.

Time to get real. PNP in no position to question the proposals of others with them reneging on so much over the years. Sorry, but it is plain truth and bad manners.

Same thing when I hear them talk of credibility...what a cheek after being caught repeatedly with their hands in the cookie yar. It is a darn joke!

Mek the uncommitted people ask. Time for the PNP apologists to keep quietexcept for defending their poor record.

[Karl]

this kind of argument should have been made at least a month ago not now when most minds are made up

It is exactly now that the astute campaigner will make these 'reasoned presentations'. It is aimed at the undecided voter.

The thought process is the undecided will be those outside of the 'die-hard' and will in the main i.e. the majority will be making their decisions based on reason.

Nothing about it can be called panic. It appears deliberate. It will be 'serious rum bar debate', cocktail/verandah talk...and, side light give and thrust after sports talk (after matches - light drinks moments). There will be little chuckles and guessing at reasons when and if the JLP will respond. Our electorate love 'the cut and thrust' of political debates and a laugh at the expense of the politician(s). ...even as there will be debates on the merits of Bruce's pronouncements during the debate (Omar trying to add a plus to Portia's statement about Bruce being a 'profiler' i.e. all talk without substance...a way of getting the uncommittd to take a second look at Bruce's promises?).

Trus mi, Omar just fired a short across the bow.

[Karl]

Shaw had to explain time and again during the debate the need to grow the economy and it appeared to be a foreign term to him and the panelist.

Cho Lazie, man...Omar was on about the economy growing at 'rapid' if...when the PNP wins. He was all on the need for greater growth.

BTW - The debate is still online.

[Karl]

Mek the uncommitted people ask. Time for the PNP apologists to keep quietexcept for defending their poor record.

That would be what the JLP would wish for. Winning elections is all about change and future hope.

The PNP or the JLP to win must find a way to upstage the opponent on those two fronts.

Matters not if a party has been in power 18 years or has never been in power, if that party wins on the matters of having the majority of voters more hopeful about their future...that party, all things being equal, i.e. fear and fair elections, wins!

The funds PNP or JLP?
Taxes, grants and loans! Where in the world is social sevices and infastructure improved...tremendously improved over a short period with normal operating expenses/maintenance maintained and that does not occur?

...printing money by central banks could also be looked at as loans to be serviced by 'future generations'/over coming years.

Any voter looking towards 'rapid to...' first world country and do not expect that there will be a price is crazy. It all comes down to how 'rapid' is 'rapid' and thus size of loans and grants and levels (different tiers?) of taxation?

[Willi]

Karl,

Yuh dont touch my issue, is that if you live in a galss house, yuh foolish to throw stones!

PNP has no basis upon which to ask these questions!!! Their record of broken promises and their expensive manifesto eliminate any credibility they would enjoy in questioning others.

Please read my post again.

They better stick to defending their poor record.

[Willi]

Omar has no "facts". He messsed up bigtime as he was learning the job and then used Finsac to share up the spoil of the econ fallout. Now all kinda small islands own we.

It is the reckless monetary policy and loose regulations that messed us up. Gums can gwaan flap, but they cant revise history.

[Karl]

Karl,

Yuh dont touch my issue, is that if you live in a galss house, yuh foolish to throw stones!

PNP has no basis upon which to ask these questions!!! Their record of broken promises and their expensive manifesto eliminate any credibility they would enjoy in questioning others.

Please read my post again.

They better stick to defending their poor record.

This is electioneering. Bruce fired the first shot with his claims. Omar fired back. Unfortunately Bruce cannot now saw 'same way you (PNP) will get your money'. He is in a damnned if you do...damnned if you don't position.

...besides, the PNP had to attack Bruce - take some of the shine off his Bruce vs Portia debating picture - and this is an excellent way. Watch the ride.

Bruce answers he immediately moves the spotlight away from Portia's debating skills and on his grasp of what it takes to run the country. In effect, he makes himself and his ability to manage right to the top of the current political debate. He puts himself under the spotlight.

Maybe his best bet is to leave the questions unanswered....but, that will give the PNP canvassers a field day...which an X1th hour explanation may not overcome.

[Willi]

This is electioneering. Bruce fired the first shot with his claims. Omar fired back. Unfortunately Bruce cannot now saw 'same way you (PNP) will get your money'. He is in a damnned if you do...damnned if you don't position.

...besides, the PNP had to attack Bruce - take some of the shine off his Bruce vs Portia debating picture - and this is an excellent way. Watch the ride.

Bruce answers he immediately moves the spotlight away from Portia's debating skills and on his grasp of what it takes to run the country. In effect, he makes himself and his ability to manage right to the top of the current political debate. He puts himself under the spotlight.

Maybe his best bet is to leave the questions unanswered....but, that will give the PNP canvassers a field day...which an X1th hour explanation may not overcome.

Oh, I understand that its electioneering and I dont mind that. My comments were directed to the general population who are the intended recipients of the messages. Afterall, a drowning man will clutch at straws and both parties will draw for whatever they think will give an advantage.

However, when "normal" people regurgitate nonsense, then I feel free to point it out.

[Karl]

Increased government spending not the answer

Increased government spending not the answer

Dennis Morrison
Sunday, August 19, 2007


Against the background of the hype surrounding the election campaign and the undisguised bias of large sections of the media in reporting campaign activities, some unwitting voters may well be overlooking key issues that are being clouded by skilful rhetoric.

Dennis Morrison

The most critical of these issues is the need for the government to reduce and then eliminate the deficit in the national budget. This is because the budget deficit is the major constraint in the way of rapid growth of the Jamaican economy.

In simple terms, the budget deficit causes the government to have to borrow to fill the gap between revenues and expenditures.

The bigger the deficit, the more the government must borrow, and the effect of this is to push up interest rates. Conversely, the smaller the deficit the less government must borrow, and hence the effect is to lessen the pressure for interest rates to go up. If there is no budget deficit at all, interest rates would fall. When interest rates fall, it becomes cheaper for businesses to borrow and invest, and it also reduces the costs of servicing the national debt.

It is the considered position of local experts and those from all the leading international financial institutions and rating agencies that a critical factor in getting the Jamaican economy onto a rapid growth path is for the budget deficit to be wiped out so that interest rates can fall.

By making money cheaper to borrow, the groundwork will then be laid for businesses to invest more, thereby generating increased economic activity and creating more jobs.

Proposals that call for higher government spending that is not matched by immediate increases in revenues will therefore run counter to the direction, which all are agreed we must pursue. Before this election campaign is over, responsible journalists must make it their duty to have this issue fully understood. Were it to be ignored, we would run the risk of acting in ignorance of the full implications of proposals involving immediate increased public spending.

We should also be aware that soft options such as the reallocation of expenditure from one budget item to another are just that: soft options. A half of the capital budget for the current financial year represents inescapable expenditures. These are expenditures that are tied to specific programmes that cannot be cut or redirected.

Most of the other half is allocated to essential areas such as education, national security, health, agriculture and tourism. It is virtually impossible, therefore, to resort to re-allocation as the means by which to find money to pay for big new spending by MPs. Money to cover the costs of the abolition of tuition and health fees cannot be met in this way.

As I indicated in last Wednesday's article, the current global economic conditions do not favour expansionary public expenditure. On the contrary, the turbulence in global financial markets is imposing even greater responsibility on governmental authorities to act in a fiscally prudent manner. Looseness in fiscal policy and laxity in monetary affairs would be recipes for economic instability.

The poor and vulnerable would be the hardest hit by such instability. The economic history of Jamaica over the last 30 years provides us with powerful lessons about the damage done to the poorer classes by lapses in economic management.

In the past, increased public spending has been covered by resorting to advances from the Bank of Jamaica [printing of money] and the consequences of this are well known. The printing of money is quickly followed by high inflation and then devaluation of the currency, which then fuels even higher inflation. Wage-earners are robbed of their purchasing power and businesses are destabilised. The governor of the Bank of Jamaica has quite firmly maintained that this is not an option for the future.

The alternative course would have to be increased borrowing by government from the local capital market. The direct consequence of this would be higher interest rates, which as I spelt out before, would push up the cost of servicing the national debt and impose higher costs for borrowing by the private sector.

The effect would be that less money would be available for investment, the economy would slow down, and the workforce would be squeezed. This is not a course to be contemplated.

Rather than focusing on increased government spending, the direction should be to accelerate investment and stimulate economic activity, especially by micro, small and medium-sized businesses.

Jamaica has established a sound macro-economic foundation which is a big part of the reason why investment activity is now so strong. By maximising the impact of investment in tourism, infrastructure, information communication technology, energy and agriculture, we can speed up the rate of economic growth and put many more people to work.

When we would have achieved accelerated growth and increased revenues, the way would be paved for wiping out the budget deficit and reducing interest rates. More resources would then be available for social expenditure.

This is the course that makes sense and can be easily understood if our journalists are prepared to abandon hype and bring realism to bear on the issues. In such a situation voters would be able to assess the manifestos and utterances on the campaign trail. This way, they would be better able to make informed decisions as to their choice of representation.

Another issue that has so far not been subject to the careful study and discussion that is necessary is energy. At the current price of crude oil, Jamaica's import bill for fuel is far beyond our earning capacity.

From just over US$300 million, eight years ago, that bill rose to over US$1.5 billion last year. A draft energy policy which was put forward in Parliament has been largely ignored. Neither the leaders of business nor our politicians seem ready to deal with the tough choices that we must make in this matter. For the time being, the impact of high oil prices on our foreign exchange situation is being eased by the PetroCaribe arrangements.

While this is a welcome relief, it really is buying us time to sort out the long-term direction by which we will arrive at a sustainable energy situation. There must be consensus around policies that will push us to be more efficient in our use of energy, to diversify our sources and to develop renewable sources such as solar and wind.

There is evidence that an aggressive approach is being adopted in relation to oil and gas exploration, and increased interest is being shown by international players. In the short and medium term, however, emphasis must be on measures to encourage and drive consumers to conserve and use electricity and gasoline more efficiently.

There is still time to bring these issues to the front burner. Moreover, it is not difficult to find knowledgeable people who can discuss these issues in a constructive and informative manner if there is the interest or will.