Weak regulation threatens to burst real estate bubble

[Assasin]

Canute Francis???? Come on man.

https://jamaica-gleaner.com/article/...e-dramatically

Jamaica is expected to grow by 4 percent. Real Estate is growing. Housing may dip a little but almost all sectors are growing.

[Sir X]

Fair to say you dont like the data . If I am grasping at straws what are you grasping at ...lol

1.The University of the West Indies, Canute Thompson, is taking issue with the approach, pointing out in an email to the NHT on which The Gleaner was copied that less than 10 per cent of employees in Jamaica earn $6 million per annum."


2.Of another 143 initial applications from the open market, only 10 per cent (15) were followed through. It is now reported that perhaps 42 of the apartments may have been committed. Put another way, 49 per cent of them are still to be sold.

3.Scotia CEO (and EPOC member) Audrey Tugwell Henry, who observed mortgage growth has continued (affordable housing is the real need), but that some lending had been affected by the uncertainty of inflation and higher costs, which had also tempered consumer and business confidence

With all that gibberish from the article, he cant say if the economy is back to pre COVID levels, with declining remitances ,but he can state touurism is back and roaring

[Assasin]

You picking at straws "From the same article , makes you go hmmmmmm?"

Yes some lending would be affect but in case you don't know NHT borrowers have a flat rate and only government can change it. 4% growth, that is big in today's world.

[Sir X]

From the same article , makes you go hmmmmmm?

In response to a question on mortgage rates, Duncan invited the participation of new Scotia CEO (and EPOC member) Audrey Tugwell Henry, who observed mortgage growth has continued (affordable housing is the real need), but that some lending had been affected by the uncertainty of inflation and higher costs, which had also tempered consumer and business confidence.

[Jangle]

Jamaica's growth forecast raised above 4% as UK PM resigns amidst IMF global growth gloom

Jamaica poster story recovery has growth forecast raised above 4 per cent as new UK Prime Minister enters office amidst International Monetary Fund (IMF) global growth gloom

As Private Sector Organisation of Jamaica (PSOJ) President Keith Duncan noted in his Economic Programme Oversight Committee (EPOC) presentation last week Thursday, the interim fiscal policy paper for fiscal year 22/23 tabled in Parliament on September 27 projected higher growth for the current fiscal year of 4.1 per cent, above the original budgeted projection of 3.5 per cent. This improvement is the exact opposite of the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) just-released forecast of reduced global growth, with very few countries worldwide raising their growth forecasts, a vast number reducing their growth forecasts, and up to a third already projected to be in recession by the IMF both this year and next. This upgrade appears to be driven by a better-than-expected tourism performance, with visitor arrivals for the September 2022 quarter of 622,940 at 106.1 per cent of the comparable 2019 period. As Duncan noted, to be above pre-pandemic 2019 tourism performance is an "incredible" achievement, demonstrating the success of our early opening of the locally developed "resilient corridor", and combined with the very marginal 0.4 per cent decline in remittances to US$1,391.2 million for the April to August 2022 period supports the Bank of Jamaica's (BOJ) view that smoothing the volatility of the exchange rate is not that big a competitiveness issue so far.

https://www.jamaicaobserver.com/busi...-growth-gloom/

[Sir X]

I just want to reinforce my point about the data , the 1st article was written NOV, 20 21 and stated this .

"Over a 25-year period, that would put the monthly mortgage amount for the lowest-priced apartment at $149,000, assuming a deposit of 10 per cent of the unit cost is paid upfront. It means that someone seeking to qualify for a unit would need to earn between $5 million and $6 million annually.

But senior lecturer of educational policy, planning, and leadership at The University of the West Indies, Canute Thompson, is taking issue with the approach, pointing out in an email to the NHT on which The Gleaner was copied that less than 10 per cent of employees in Jamaica earn $6 million per annum."

https://jamaica-gleaner.com/article/...g-ruthven-road

The 2nd ariticle written JUNE 2022, thats 4 months after the war in high inflation overseas , rising interest rates locally , would suggest a correlation of both overseas and local demand dropping .

"Things, however, seems to have collapsed. As this newspaper reported, of 226 applications received up to the end of April – under a complex matrix that includes points for income, the length of time a person contributed to the Trust, and proximity of the new development to where they now live and work – only 22 (9.7 per cent) could afford the apartments for which they applied. Thirty-one of these applications were not pursued. Of another 143 initial applications from the open market, only 10 per cent (15) were followed through. It is now reported that perhaps 42 of the apartments may have been committed. Put another way, 49 per cent of them are still to be sold.

This sluggish take-up is despite the fact that as the NHT confirmed a broad swathe of “financing arrangements are being explored and offered to applicants”. These apparently include a willingness to hike the traditional debt-servicing ratio on mortgages of no more than a third to 50 per cent of income. The Trust is also considering a reintroduction of graduated mortgage arrangements. For now, the rest of the Ruthven Road scheme has been mothballed.".

Now its either you 2 are blind or dumb in putting the dots together worst case you both are deliberately misleading i.e lying to justify your positions. That said I gave Brick a bly..lol

https://jamaica-gleaner.com/article/...-towers-prices

[Jangle]

Business confidence up ‘dramatically’


Business confidence increased by double-digit levels while consumer confidence inched slightly higher for the third quarter of 2022, reflecting the reopening of the economy.

Business leaders from the financial, entertainment, hardware and tourism sectors endorsed the optimism captured in confidence survey on Tuesday amid expectations of investment.

Business confidence at 147.4 points in the third quarter grew by 18.3 per cent over the second quarter. Consumer confidence at 162.6 points in the third quarter increased by 4.2 percentage points over the second quarter.

“We have apparently come out of the pandemic and its challenges, and there is a considerable degree of optimism going forward. The third quarter data points in that direction,” said Don Anderson, executive chairman of Market Research Services Limited at an online press conference on Tuesday during the release of the JCC Business & Consumer Indices. Anderson’s firm conducts the confidence surveys on behalf of the Jamaica Chamber of Commerce and the Jamaica Conference Board.

https://jamaica-gleaner.com/article/...e-dramatically

[Sir X]

Data was provided in high interest rates , high inflation and a predictive global recession. As for the real estate market, data was provided that the majority of buyers for high end developmental properties are overseas buyers, built by private developers / builders .That article Brick presented is 1) outdated ,pre war , pre inflation and an outlier in the NHT scope of building projects , you should know this. The numbers are per a decrease in developmental properties for high end buyers is 1) the economy has not returned to pre pandemic levels , that includes real estate. The data for that trend is expected to be exacerbated given the above data, it is pending but predictable. Stop yapping and regurgitating catch phrases and sound bites about data not there , you have it and it is coming in as we speak. I said give it till the summer at worst the end of next year.

This is the context of Bricks NHT article , they specialize in medium to low income housing .

https://jamaica-gleaner.com/article/...-towers-prices

https://jamaica-gleaner.com/article/...g-ruthven-road

[Assasin]

Again it shows your understanding of the market. All you are doing is grandstanding based on your belief and a few statement. There is no hard data or numbers to prove what you are saying. The government is building more NHT houses based on demand and the policies they set of low down payment and longer mortgages. Until you show me any number then you just a chat.

[Sir X]

Easy, always a backdoor in realestate . I will give you a bly and agree with you they are all sold, the article was Dec 2021 , 2 to 3 months before the war.

https://www.nht.gov.jm/overseas-contribution

[Bricktop]

you're clueless...how would overseas buyers use NHT? all the units sold...who bought them?

[Sir X]

Nice. I dont see any overseas buyer using NHT money to purchase that and I dont see the local middle class purchasing the bulk of those units, give it 6 months to a year to hear the bawling.

[Bricktop]

low income housing? $38.7 million is low income housing?

https://www.jamaicaobserver.com/busi...uthven-towers/

[Sir X]

Lol...so you bringing low income housing into the equation for overseas buyers , is that who private developers are selling to , NHT buyers. That said getting numbers or data on private developers, projects , units , sellers , buyers , days on the market is next to impossible for the average buyer. You have to have certain skill sets to read that.

You can't make this up....lol.

[Bricktop]

what are you not understanding? 80% of the houses brought to market each year are built by NHT...20% by private developers...capiche?

p.s. this look like low income housing to you? https://www.nht.gov.jm/node/1752