Weak regulation threatens to burst real estate bubble

[Sir X]

The time for choosing masters is over, that is a part of the problem, archaic thinking. The Chinese can directly be linked to our real estate boom by investing in our highway infrastructure. The west has no choice but to compete or go to war with CHINA on that front ( economic war), it can't beat them militarily, no one wants a military war. I see you didnt read the article..

Another strategic proposal from Lane and Tang includes developing countermeasures for China’s Belt and Road Initiative, which is a global infrastructure development strategy adopted by the Chinese government in 2013 to invest in about 150 countries. The authors note that it is already facing setbacks, funding shortfalls and political pushback that has stalled certain projects. The final suggestion is to form a plan based on the Americas Partnership for Economic Prosperity, which is an agreement announced by Biden last year to drive the Western hemisphere’s economic recovery and growth. This partnership aims to mobilize new investments in the region, but the U.S. can negotiate deals that can preempt China’s infrastructure investments in the future.

https://merage.uci.edu/news/2023/03/...With-Them.html

[Jangle]

The Chinese strategize 10 to 25 years in advance. While the US, Europe and Russia built up their military artilleries to show whose male chickens were bigger, China has been strengthening their influence across the world in strategically geographical Third World countries. The US has ignored the Caribbean and Latin American countries for decades, and as a result they remain distracted as they struggle with illegal immigration and other problems. Countries like Jamaica have been begging for help for years while we remained loyal to the US. Now, with the "benevolent" help from China, Jamaica's economy is booming. We will be paying the price at a future date, but the reality is, which Massa are we going to serve.

[Sir X]

I would simply look at how the west controls inflation as the indicator. When gas prices start averaging $3 a gallon in NY , interest rates start trending down , Jamaica will do same , to me it's an indication of increased money going into Jamaica from the diaspora and savy investors. Only the bullish are rushing into Jamaica with investment money presently , while good , you need the weak heart investors to truly have that turn around.

This Ukraine war has to end for that to happen , it's a drag on the world economy. I expect it to end by the end of this year , and 2023 to see the beginning of a return to normal. The USA / West will focus on its economic war with China / BRICS and the nonaligned nations ( Jamaica) should benefit. The western media is finally promoting this narrative and the west has no choice but to compete. Jamaica is ata good place constitutional/ corruption/ democratic change is on the agenda.

The increased geopolitical risks induced by the Russian invasion of Ukraine will weigh adversely on global economic conditions throughout 2022. Such effects are estimated in our model to reduce GDP and boost inflation significantly, exacerbating the policy trade-offs facing central banks around the world. While sizeable, these effects do not appear.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/econr...%20the%20world.



China’s Port Investment are Raising Security Fears: How to Deal With Them

https://merage.uci.edu/news/2023/03/...With-Them.html

[Jangle]

Economic growth is underpinned by stability

ON October 10, 2021, whilst occupying the office of president of Generation 2000 (G2K), this newspaper was kind enough to publish my submission titled 'History will absolve BOJ's rate hike'. That article was drafted in response to (in my view) the unwarranted disquiet greeting the Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) increasing its key policy rate (the rate they pay as interest for funds borrowed/held on behalf of commercial banks/financial institutions) for the first in some time.

The article stated: "In August 2021 the Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) announced their likely departure from the accommodative monetary policy framework of several years. This intent was consummated on September 30, 2021 when they announced a 100-basis point (one per cent) increase in the BOJ base rate from 0.5 per cent to 1.5 per cent, with a concerning rise in inflation being among the reasons for their decision."

Stable interest rates

The days where a project would break ground with an interest rate of 5 per cent that was raised on a whim to 20 per cent halfway, appear to be long gone. This aligns with my previously expressed view that any real estate project implies a seven-year expression of confidence, if a realistic recoupment rate (circa 15 per cent per annum, in real terms greater than or equal to net of inflation and devaluation) is applied. Be that as it may, construction projects can be reasonably considered a leading indicator of investor confidence, given the preceding information.

Stability brings confidence, and confidence brings financing and opportunities to raise equity capital, the ultimate arbiter of investor confidence. These in turn create employment opportunities and contribute to economic growth, representative of a value chain.

If so, the chain is only as strong as its weakest link.

Value is chained to stability.

https://www.jamaicaobserver.com/busi...-by-stability/

[Jangle]

FirstRock exploring new real estate projects

FirstRock Real Estate Investments Limited (FRRE) is planning a suite of new real estate investments for 2023 as it continues its geographic diversification strategy.

The real estate investment company is planning to launch a new project at 2 Retreat Avenue in St Andrew, which comes on the heels of its recently launched Bonne Chance development in St Andrew which is valued at $2.5 billion. Its subsidiary FCH Jamaica Assets Limited received a vendor mortgage for Retreat Avenue from a private individual valued at US$4.5 million and acquired the three-acre property for US$5 million in March 2022.

"So, it's one of the largest plots of land in the Golden Triangle. We're looking to do a set of 18 luxury homes there this year," said president and chief executive officer of FirstRock Capital Resources Limited Ryan Reid in a recent interview. FirstRock Capital Resources acts as the management company and manages the operations of FRRE.

Its Bonne Chance project is expected to be completed within 24 months following the ground-breaking ceremony. The project was acquired as part of a joint venture in January 2022 and is a nine-storey apartment complex with 31 studio units, 10 one-bedroom units and two penthouse units. Bonne Chance is French for 'Good Luck'. It's being developed by Garco Construction Services Limited which is also completing its Hambani Estates project.

https://www.jamaicaobserver.com/busi...tate-projects/

[Assasin]

LOL!!! the expert not so long ago the expert predicted a buss, Is the buss here yet?

[Assasin]

"Why would you agree it can go bust , if you say there is no data......lol". It is life anything can happen. Who knew that Comrade Putin would invade Ukraine? Hurricane or natural disaster can happen

[Sir X]

Why would you agree it can go bust , if you say there is no data......lol

[Assasin]

Saying it is one thing. Yes it can go bust but providing no data to support is another and using Canute Thompson as source is picking at the bottom. When has he ever got anything right in the last 10 years?

[Sir X]

You guys are comedians all I said was the market could go bust , gave you supported articles , rebuffed yours and you all got wedges in your green @$$!.

[Bricktop]

Canute Thompson, is taking issue with the approach

Canute Thompson? The biggest PNP rabble rouser & propoganda agent? This cyaan real to rhattid

[Bricktop]

no you are giving conflicting information...par for the course...bombard them with misinformation to confuse the issue...we know your comrade tactics already likkle X

[Sir X]

Let's just say we await the end of next year for another Ruthven article...lol. Is it sold out or not , the gleaner is giving conflicting information...lol.

[Bricktop]

For now, the rest of the Ruthven Road scheme has been mothballed.

[Bricktop]

"Things, however, seems to have collapsed. As this newspaper reported, of 226 applications received up to the end of April – under a complex matrix that includes points for income, the length of time a person contributed to the Trust, and proximity of the new development to where they now live and work – only 22 (9.7 per cent) could afford the apartments for which they applied. Thirty-one of these applications were not pursued. Of another 143 initial applications from the open market, only 10 per cent (15) were followed through. It is now reported that perhaps 42 of the apartments may have been committed. Put another way, 49 per cent of them are still to be sold.

This sluggish take-up is despite the fact that as the NHT confirmed a broad swathe of “financing arrangements are being explored and offered to applicants”. These apparently include a willingness to hike the traditional debt-servicing ratio on mortgages of no more than a third to 50 per cent of income. The Trust is also considering a reintroduction of graduated mortgage arrangements. For now, the rest of the Ruthven Road scheme has been mothballed.".